Will Oregon Republican US Senator Gordon Smith be a Victim of a Democratic Surge in November?

    Oregon is a blue state with a conservative, but independent US Senator, Gordon Smith.
    He has opposed President Bush on the war in Iraq, and voted against oil drilling in Alaska.
    What are his chances in November?
    My best guess is the following:
    If there are a lot of new voters and there is a Democratic surge in November, he probably loses to the  lesser known Democrat.
However,   If Hillary Clinton is the Democratic Nominee...All bets are off, as she will galvanize the GOP and independents against her, and Gordon Smith will probably be elected for another 6 year term.
    If Senator Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee in the fall, Smith like his brethren in the Senate will be wiped out in a new Democratic veto-proof US Senate.
    The State of Oregon may be in play in the Democratic Primary in May, as it was in 1968, if Hillary and Obama are competitive at that late date---a major possibility.

    Since the Democratic Primaries are "preferential" and the delegates are apportioned to the voting percentage of all of the candidates, with some exceptions, it is very possible that Oregon could tip the balance for either Hillary or Barack Obama.

    This is almost funny, because many big states like California, which spent 60-90 million dollars in pushing their primary date from June to Feb, 5th---to be more "relevant," may indeed become almost irrelevant to states that hold traditional later primaries.

    If Barack Obama is competitive with the former First Lady during late spring, the Bill Clinton's "purple rage" interviews may be a common theme in this election.

    Thanks for reading:

    Bob Kholos

   

       

Comments

[Judy]

That would be interesting if some of the later states end up being more relevant to the race after others rushed to get up in front. I can't remember when Michigan and Florida originally were suppose to have their primaries but by moving them up don't even really get to be part of the primary vote for the Dems. I did read today that now Hillary & Bill want to change it so that Michigan and Florida delegates do count. I'm so so tired of those 2.

[SAIGONBOB]

Thanks, Judy.
I thought it was funny that Hillary charged that Obama had a national commercial that happened to run in Florida, while she--against the DNC rules-- kept her name on the Michigan ballot.