My crystal ball:
If well-liked New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, can stay in the Democratic Presidential Primary until February 5th, in California, I believe he will throw the Los Angeles part of the election to Barack Obama.
Villaraigosa is still a very popular Mayor of Los Angeles, and it has nothing to do with his Latino background.
But, in politics, Senator Hillary Clinton needs the Hispanic Los Angeles vote, and the endorsement of the Mayor, to have a chance in the Democratic Primary.
Will these votes transfer from the Mayor to Clinton, when Bill Richardson campaigns in southern California, and takes out thousands of dollars of radio ads in "Radio Espagnol," which has a leadership role in the numbers game of AM radio?
I really like Governor Richardson, but because of the early primary season, I don't think....even if he did win Iowa and New Hampshire, or South Carolina and Nevada, he would have the time or money to pick up and execute a national primary campaign.
In California, Texas, and Florida, Richardson will probably do better than expected, and thus be his own power broker during the fall campaign. I believe his entrance into California, specifically, will split the Latino vote, gain some votes in West Los Angeles, and in essence, give the southern California vote to Obama and Edwards.... therefore,I give Obama the edge.
The San Francisco Bay area, is soooo anti-war, that this will taint Mrs. Clinton, and that is why I believe that Barack Obama will win the California Democratic Primary.
Of course it is still early.....but, if I'm wrong...I can always update on Feb 6th, 2008, and change my story!
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